Betting Lines
| Spread | ME -6.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 147.5 Under |
| Money | ME -275 UMBC +225 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ME win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ME +23 | 123 | Won |
| Massey | ME -8.1 (+14.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 154.5 (-31.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 85% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 86% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ME -7.3 (+15.7) | 150.1 (-27.1) | 78% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ME -7.1 (+15.9) | 148.4 (-25.4) | 79% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ME -6.6 (+16.4) | 149.4 (-26.4) | 77% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ME -7.1 (+15.9) | 150.0 (-27.0) | 79% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 12, 2026 | UMBC 78 – 62 ME |
| Jan 8, 2026 | UMBC 69 – 62 ME |
| Jan 18, 2025 | ME 87 – 62 UMBC |
| Feb 22, 2024 | ME 62 – 56 UMBC |
| Jan 19, 2024 | UMBC 70 – 65 ME |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ME | UMBC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-14 | 13-19 |
| Conference | 10-6 | 5-11 |
| Home | 10-3 | 8-9 |
| Away | 8-11 | 5-10 |
| Neutral | 2-0 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.0 | 77.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.2 | 80.6 |
| Massey | -2.4 (#207) | -7.3 (#280) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.37 (#207) | -1.54 (#305) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.44 (#207) | -1.58 (#281) |
| RPI | 0.497 (#179) | 0.434 (#294) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ME | UMBC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.0% | 48.2% |
| 3PT% | 35.6% | 38.5% |
| REB / G | 29.0 | 30.9 |
| OREB / G | 7.0 | 6.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.29 | 1.20 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.8% | 55.4% |
| TOV% | 15.9% | 16.6% |
| ORB% | 22.3% | 20.3% |
| FT Rate | 21.8% | 24.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.2% | 52.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.0% | 17.5% |
| DRB% | 67.2% | 65.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.2% | 19.3% |
Game Analysis
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