Betting Lines
| Spread | UMBC -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 151.5 Under |
| Money | UMBC -140 ME +120 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UMBC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ME +25 | 149 | Lost |
| Massey | UMBC -1.3 (-26.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 154.1 (-5.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 42% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 42% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ME -0.4 (-24.6) | 147.6 (+1.4) | 44% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ME -1.0 (-24.0) | 146.3 (+2.7) | 36% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ME -0.2 (-24.8) | 146.3 (+2.7) | 50% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ME -0.0 (-25.0) | 146.3 (+2.7) | 47% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 12, 2026 | UMBC 78 – 62 ME |
| Jan 8, 2026 | UMBC 69 – 62 ME |
| Feb 8, 2025 | ME 73 – 50 UMBC |
| Feb 22, 2024 | ME 62 – 56 UMBC |
| Jan 19, 2024 | UMBC 70 – 65 ME |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UMBC | ME |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-19 | 20-14 |
| Conference | 5-11 | 10-6 |
| Home | 8-9 | 10-3 |
| Away | 5-10 | 8-11 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 2-0 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L3 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.3 | 69.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 80.6 | 67.2 |
| Massey | -5.5 (#259) | -3.0 (#218) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.53 (#306) | -0.50 (#217) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.71 (#292) | -0.59 (#209) |
| RPI | 0.421 (#311) | 0.477 (#213) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UMBC | ME |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.2% | 45.2% |
| 3PT% | 38.0% | 34.5% |
| REB / G | 30.8 | 28.4 |
| OREB / G | 7.0 | 7.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.34 | 1.23 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.3% | 50.9% |
| TOV% | 15.3% | 16.8% |
| ORB% | 20.6% | 22.8% |
| FT Rate | 22.8% | 21.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.8% | 51.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.3% | 22.5% |
| DRB% | 66.7% | 66.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.4% | 24.1% |
Game Analysis
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