Betting Lines
| Spread | UMBC -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 135.5 Over |
| Money | ME +154 UMBC -185 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ME win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UMBC +16 | 140 | Lost |
| Massey | UMBC -3.7 (-12.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 129.7 (+10.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 25% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 22% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UMBC -4.3 (-11.7) | 132.5 (+7.5) | 30% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UMBC -3.7 (-12.3) | 129.2 (+10.8) | 38% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UMBC -4.7 (-11.3) | 132.0 (+8.0) | 29% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UMBC -3.6 (-12.4) | 131.2 (+8.8) | 27% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 8, 2026 | UMBC 69 – 62 ME |
| Feb 8, 2025 | ME 73 – 50 UMBC |
| Jan 18, 2025 | ME 87 – 62 UMBC |
| Feb 22, 2024 | ME 62 – 56 UMBC |
| Jan 19, 2024 | UMBC 70 – 65 ME |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ME | UMBC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 8-24 | 24-9 |
| Conference | 6-10 | 14-2 |
| Home | 4-8 | 15-2 |
| Away | 4-14 | 9-6 |
| Neutral | 0-2 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L3 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 61.2 | 75.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.5 | 68.5 |
| Massey | -12.9 (#337) | -6.2 (#262) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.64 (#351) | -1.04 (#257) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -3.29 (#350) | -1.44 (#269) |
| RPI | 0.392 (#352) | 0.456 (#253) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ME | UMBC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.9% | 46.2% |
| 3PT% | 31.1% | 34.9% |
| REB / G | 27.6 | 33.2 |
| OREB / G | 6.8 | 7.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.91 | 1.23 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.5% | 53.1% |
| TOV% | 19.7% | 15.0% |
| ORB% | 21.1% | 23.1% |
| FT Rate | 24.0% | 24.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.5% | 51.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.4% | 14.9% |
| DRB% | 63.8% | 73.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.3% | 17.1% |
Game Analysis
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