Betting Lines
| Spread | ARK -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 140.0 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | VAN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | VAN +13 | 181 | Won |
| Massey | ARK -5.0 (+18.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 141.7 (+39.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 27% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 18% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ARK -3.2 (+16.2) | 144.4 (+36.6) | 43% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ARK -2.6 (+15.6) | 143.9 (+37.1) | 40% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ARK -3.9 (+16.9) | 142.9 (+38.1) | 35% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | ARK -3.5 (+16.5) | 143.8 (+37.2) | 41% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 15, 2026 | ARK 86 – 75 VAN |
| Jan 21, 2026 | ARK 93 – 68 VAN |
| Mar 5, 2025 | ARK 90 – 77 VAN |
| Mar 13, 2024 | ARK 90 – 85 VAN |
| Feb 28, 2024 | VAN 85 – 82 ARK |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | VAN | ARK |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-15 | 22-14 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 8-10 |
| Home | 14-6 | 14-3 |
| Away | 5-6 | 2-8 |
| Neutral | 3-3 | 6-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.9 | 74.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.5 | 67.9 |
| Massey | 4.5 (#100) | 13.5 (#16) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.47 (#133) | 2.14 (#31) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.43 (#146) | 2.76 (#28) |
| RPI | 0.536 (#118) | 0.632 (#14) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | VAN | ARK |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.3% | 47.2% |
| 3PT% | 32.5% | 28.4% |
| REB / G | 37.9 | 36.6 |
| OREB / G | 11.8 | 10.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.01 | 1.01 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.2% | 51.1% |
| TOV% | 18.3% | 18.1% |
| ORB% | 32.3% | 30.4% |
| FT Rate | 20.0% | 27.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.5% | 46.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.7% | 23.0% |
| DRB% | 73.4% | 76.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.6% | 24.2% |
Game Analysis
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