Betting Lines
| Spread | VAN -7.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 149.5 Over |
| Money | VAN -300 ARK +250 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | VAN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ARK +13 | 167 | Lost |
| Massey | VAN -3.1 (-16.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 152.1 (+14.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 82% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 78% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | VAN -3.8 (-16.8) | 153.8 (+13.2) | 65% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | VAN -3.3 (-16.3) | 149.0 (+18.0) | 64% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | VAN -3.4 (-16.4) | 150.4 (+16.6) | 68% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | VAN -4.2 (-17.2) | 152.0 (+15.0) | 61% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 15, 2026 | ARK 86 – 75 VAN |
| Jan 21, 2026 | ARK 93 – 68 VAN |
| Mar 13, 2024 | ARK 90 – 85 VAN |
| Feb 28, 2024 | VAN 85 – 82 ARK |
| Jan 14, 2023 | VAN 97 – 84 ARK |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | VAN | ARK |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-13 | 22-14 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 8-10 |
| Home | 14-3 | 13-4 |
| Away | 3-7 | 4-6 |
| Neutral | 3-3 | 5-4 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L4 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 78.9 | 76.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.3 | 71.4 |
| Massey | 13.2 (#38) | 13.4 (#36) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.12 (#13) | 2.19 (#41) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.39 (#26) | 2.81 (#41) |
| RPI | 0.584 (#42) | 0.556 (#77) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | VAN | ARK |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.7% | 46.2% |
| 3PT% | 32.8% | 33.1% |
| REB / G | 35.1 | 34.8 |
| OREB / G | 11.9 | 9.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.41 | 1.25 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.3% | 52.3% |
| TOV% | 14.5% | 16.4% |
| ORB% | 32.7% | 26.9% |
| FT Rate | 24.7% | 25.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.9% | 48.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.3% | 18.1% |
| DRB% | 70.4% | 71.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.8% | 20.7% |
Game Analysis
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