He just grinned and shook my hand, "No" was all he said. "The Weight" - The Band
Southeastern Conference · Memorial Gymnasium (TN) · March 5, 2025
Betting Lines
Spread VAN -7.5 Away covered
O/U 149.5 Over
Money VAN -300 / ARK +250
Model Predictions
Spread Total VAN win
Actual ARK +13 167 Lost
Massey VAN -3.1 (-16.1)
Massey Totals 152.1 (+14.9)
Bradley-Terry 82%
Weighted B-T 78%
Efficiency Plus ML VAN -3.3 (-16.3) 149.0 (+18.0) 64%
Baseline Tuned ML VAN -3.4 (-16.4) 150.4 (+16.6) 68%
Baseline ML VAN -4.2 (-17.2) 152.0 (+15.0) 61%
Baseline Plus ML VAN -3.8 (-16.8) 153.8 (+13.2) 65%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Mar 15, 2026 ARK 8675 VAN
Jan 21, 2026 ARK 9368 VAN
Mar 13, 2024 ARK 9085 VAN
Feb 28, 2024 VAN 8582 ARK
Jan 14, 2023 VAN 9784 ARK

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings VAN ARK
Overall 20-13 22-14
Conference 8-10 8-10
Home 14-3 13-4
Away 3-7 4-6
Neutral 3-3 5-4
Last 5 3-2 2-3
Streak L4 L1
Avg Pts For 78.9 76.8
Avg Pts Against 74.3 71.4
Massey 13.2 (#38) 13.4 (#36)
Bradley-Terry 3.12 (#13) 2.19 (#41)
W. Bradley-Terry 3.39 (#26) 2.81 (#41)
RPI 0.584 (#42) 0.556 (#77)
Shooting & Four Factors VAN ARK
FG% 45.7% 46.2%
3PT% 32.8% 33.1%
REB / G 35.1 34.8
OREB / G 11.9 9.0
AST / TO 1.41 1.25
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 52.3% 52.3%
TOV% 14.5% 16.4%
ORB% 32.7% 26.9%
FT Rate 24.7% 25.3%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 52.9% 48.1%
Opp TOV% 20.3% 18.1%
DRB% 70.4% 71.4%
Opp FT Rate 26.8% 20.7%

Game Analysis

Loading game analysis…

Failed to load game analysis.