Betting Lines
| Spread | ARK -5.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 148.5 Over |
| Money | ARK -250 VAN +188 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ARK win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ARK +5 | 175 | Won |
| Massey | ARK -6.1 (-1.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 146.2 (+28.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 77% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 86% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ARK -6.1 (-1.1) | 149.2 (+25.8) | 75% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ARK -6.4 (-1.4) | 147.7 (+27.3) | 77% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ARK -6.4 (-1.4) | 148.9 (+26.1) | 72% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ARK -6.3 (-1.3) | 150.1 (+24.9) | 75% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 15, 2026 | ARK 86 – 75 VAN |
| Jan 21, 2026 | ARK 93 – 68 VAN |
| Mar 5, 2025 | ARK 90 – 77 VAN |
| Feb 28, 2024 | VAN 85 – 82 ARK |
| Jan 14, 2023 | VAN 97 – 84 ARK |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ARK | VAN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-17 | 9-23 |
| Conference | 6-12 | 4-14 |
| Home | 11-6 | 8-10 |
| Away | 2-7 | 1-9 |
| Neutral | 3-4 | 0-4 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.8 | 67.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 79.8 | 75.9 |
| Massey | 4.4 (#108) | -1.8 (#193) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.99 (#98) | -0.23 (#197) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.20 (#100) | -0.59 (#221) |
| RPI | 0.534 (#112) | 0.461 (#263) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ARK | VAN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.1% | 39.4% |
| 3PT% | 31.9% | 28.1% |
| REB / G | 34.8 | 34.4 |
| OREB / G | 8.6 | 10.8 |
| AST / TO | 0.97 | 0.90 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.3% | 45.0% |
| TOV% | 16.3% | 15.2% |
| ORB% | 25.4% | 28.4% |
| FT Rate | 34.6% | 25.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.0% | 53.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.1% | 16.0% |
| DRB% | 70.1% | 70.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 28.9% | 22.6% |
Game Analysis
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