Betting Lines
| Spread | ARK -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 173.5 Under |
| Money | ARK -115 VAN -105 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ARK win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ARK +25 | 161 | Won |
| Massey | ARK -0.1 (+24.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 176.8 (-15.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 45% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 42% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ARK -1.0 (+24.0) | 172.1 (-11.1) | 48% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ARK -2.4 (+22.6) | 170.6 (-9.6) | 61% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ARK -1.6 (+23.4) | 170.4 (-9.4) | 55% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ARK -1.5 (+23.5) | 172.4 (-11.4) | 58% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 15, 2026 | ARK 86 – 75 VAN |
| Mar 5, 2025 | ARK 90 – 77 VAN |
| Mar 13, 2024 | ARK 90 – 85 VAN |
| Feb 28, 2024 | VAN 85 – 82 ARK |
| Jan 14, 2023 | VAN 97 – 84 ARK |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ARK | VAN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 28-9 | 27-9 |
| Conference | 13-5 | 11-7 |
| Home | 17-1 | 13-3 |
| Away | 5-5 | 8-4 |
| Neutral | 6-3 | 6-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 90.2 | 85.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 81.0 | 75.0 |
| Massey | 17.6 (#24) | 20.8 (#10) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.82 (#24) | 3.59 (#15) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.81 (#22) | 4.74 (#14) |
| RPI | 0.624 (#25) | 0.651 (#12) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ARK | VAN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.7% | 49.6% |
| 3PT% | 38.4% | 36.8% |
| REB / G | 37.4 | 37.3 |
| OREB / G | 11.7 | 10.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.71 | 1.87 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.8% | 57.8% |
| TOV% | 13.7% | 13.1% |
| ORB% | 33.8% | 30.8% |
| FT Rate | 30.1% | 29.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.6% | 46.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.9% | 18.7% |
| DRB% | 69.0% | 72.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.3% | 33.2% |
Game Analysis
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