Betting Lines
| Spread | VAN -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 165.5 Under |
| Money | ARK +120 VAN -142 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ARK win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ARK +11 | 161 | Won |
| Massey | VAN -1.4 (+12.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 172.3 (-11.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 48% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 40% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | VAN -2.3 (+13.3) | 171.3 (-10.3) | 38% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | VAN -2.0 (+13.0) | 171.4 (-10.4) | 42% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | VAN -2.5 (+13.5) | 172.9 (-11.9) | 44% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | VAN -2.7 (+13.7) | 173.1 (-12.1) | 38% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 21, 2026 | ARK 93 – 68 VAN |
| Mar 5, 2025 | ARK 90 – 77 VAN |
| Mar 13, 2024 | ARK 90 – 85 VAN |
| Feb 28, 2024 | VAN 85 – 82 ARK |
| Jan 14, 2023 | VAN 97 – 84 ARK |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ARK | VAN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 28-9 | 27-9 |
| Conference | 13-5 | 11-7 |
| Home | 17-1 | 13-3 |
| Away | 5-5 | 8-4 |
| Neutral | 6-3 | 6-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 90.2 | 85.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 81.0 | 75.0 |
| Massey | 19.1 (#16) | 20.5 (#10) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.20 (#17) | 3.27 (#16) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.04 (#16) | 4.45 (#9) |
| RPI | 0.636 (#5) | 0.621 (#15) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ARK | VAN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 50.0% | 47.8% |
| 3PT% | 38.1% | 35.4% |
| REB / G | 36.1 | 35.4 |
| OREB / G | 11.2 | 10.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.88 | 1.72 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 56.3% | 55.6% |
| TOV% | 12.2% | 13.4% |
| ORB% | 32.6% | 31.4% |
| FT Rate | 27.4% | 30.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.5% | 48.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.8% | 18.0% |
| DRB% | 68.5% | 68.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.5% | 31.2% |
Game Analysis
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