Betting Lines
| Spread | ARK -9.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 143.5 Over |
| Money | ARK -500 VAN +350 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ARK win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | VAN +3 | 167 | Lost |
| Massey | ARK -9.6 (-12.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 144.3 (+22.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 92% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 95% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ARK -8.2 (-11.2) | 147.5 (+19.5) | 79% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ARK -8.4 (-11.4) | 145.4 (+21.6) | 81% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ARK -8.2 (-11.2) | 145.4 (+21.6) | 81% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | ARK -8.3 (-11.3) | 145.4 (+21.6) | 82% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 15, 2026 | ARK 86 – 75 VAN |
| Jan 21, 2026 | ARK 93 – 68 VAN |
| Mar 5, 2025 | ARK 90 – 77 VAN |
| Mar 13, 2024 | ARK 90 – 85 VAN |
| Jan 14, 2023 | VAN 97 – 84 ARK |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ARK | VAN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-17 | 9-23 |
| Conference | 6-12 | 4-14 |
| Home | 11-6 | 8-10 |
| Away | 2-7 | 1-9 |
| Neutral | 3-4 | 0-4 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.8 | 67.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 79.8 | 75.9 |
| Massey | 3.6 (#119) | -2.6 (#207) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.13 (#93) | -0.66 (#245) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.29 (#99) | -0.89 (#248) |
| RPI | 0.551 (#92) | 0.458 (#264) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ARK | VAN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.4% | 39.0% |
| 3PT% | 31.9% | 28.6% |
| REB / G | 35.0 | 34.4 |
| OREB / G | 8.9 | 10.7 |
| AST / TO | 0.98 | 0.89 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.6% | 45.0% |
| TOV% | 16.1% | 15.8% |
| ORB% | 25.9% | 28.1% |
| FT Rate | 33.3% | 24.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.4% | 52.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.3% | 15.8% |
| DRB% | 69.9% | 71.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.8% | 22.1% |
Game Analysis
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