Betting Lines
| Spread | SAM -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 146.5 Over |
| Money | SAM -120 UTC +120 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SAM win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SAM +1 | 149 | Won |
| Massey | SAM -3.7 (-2.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 151.8 (-2.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 60% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 63% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SAM -3.2 (-2.2) | 147.5 (+1.5) | 69% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SAM -2.5 (-1.5) | 147.0 (+2.0) | 68% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SAM -2.9 (-1.9) | 149.2 (-0.2) | 68% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SAM -3.1 (-2.1) | 150.5 (-1.5) | 67% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 24, 2026 | SAM 75 – 64 UTC |
| Jan 10, 2026 | UTC 88 – 79 SAM |
| Feb 13, 2025 | UTC 82 – 68 SAM |
| Jan 24, 2025 | SAM 73 – 69 UTC |
| Feb 3, 2024 | SAM 78 – 56 UTC |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SAM | UTC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-11 | 18-17 |
| Conference | 15-3 | 7-11 |
| Home | 13-3 | 9-7 |
| Away | 8-7 | 6-9 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.1 | 75.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.2 | 74.1 |
| Massey | 2.1 (#140) | 2.5 (#134) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.10 (#189) | 0.18 (#164) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.05 (#175) | 0.31 (#150) |
| RPI | 0.478 (#215) | 0.516 (#149) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SAM | UTC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.2% | 44.7% |
| 3PT% | 37.6% | 38.3% |
| REB / G | 35.1 | 35.3 |
| OREB / G | 10.3 | 10.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.93 | 1.18 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.1% | 55.1% |
| TOV% | 20.0% | 19.4% |
| ORB% | 31.0% | 30.1% |
| FT Rate | 28.3% | 25.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.8% | 51.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.3% | 15.6% |
| DRB% | 72.8% | 73.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.2% | 19.1% |
Game Analysis
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