Betting Lines
| Spread | NEV -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 146.0 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NEV win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NEV +15 | 155 | Won |
| Massey | NEV -1.7 (+13.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 147.9 (+7.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 71% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 63% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NEV -2.9 (+12.1) | 144.8 (+10.2) | 70% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NEV -1.5 (+13.5) | 142.5 (+12.5) | 69% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NEV -2.7 (+12.3) | 144.7 (+10.3) | 64% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | NEV -2.5 (+12.5) | 144.9 (+10.1) | 66% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 14, 2026 | USU 79 – 66 NEV |
| Feb 22, 2026 | NEV 80 – 77 USU |
| Jan 15, 2026 | USU 71 – 62 NEV |
| Jan 23, 2025 | USU 90 – 69 NEV |
| Jan 1, 2025 | USU 69 – 64 NEV |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NEV | USU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-11 | 26-9 |
| Conference | 12-6 | 13-5 |
| Home | 14-1 | 14-2 |
| Away | 6-7 | 7-4 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 5-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L4 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.8 | 77.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.2 | 69.9 |
| Massey | 9.5 (#48) | 11.9 (#25) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.20 (#30) | 2.00 (#39) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.55 (#38) | 2.84 (#26) |
| RPI | 0.634 (#13) | 0.614 (#22) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NEV | USU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.1% | 48.2% |
| 3PT% | 32.6% | 41.5% |
| REB / G | 34.2 | 36.9 |
| OREB / G | 7.9 | 8.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.23 | 1.44 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.9% | 56.6% |
| TOV% | 15.9% | 16.7% |
| ORB% | 24.2% | 25.6% |
| FT Rate | 32.8% | 27.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.2% | 47.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.1% | 15.9% |
| DRB% | 73.8% | 78.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.7% | 21.2% |
Game Analysis
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