Betting Lines
| Spread | TNTC -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 142.5 Under |
| Money | TNTC -120 TNST +125 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TNTC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TNTC +8 | 134 | Won |
| Massey | TNTC -4.3 (+3.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 147.4 (-13.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 66% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 76% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TNTC -1.9 (+6.1) | 145.5 (-11.5) | 59% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TNTC -2.8 (+5.2) | 142.4 (-8.4) | 62% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TNTC -2.0 (+6.0) | 144.4 (-10.4) | 62% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TNTC -2.2 (+5.8) | 144.2 (-10.2) | 58% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 3, 2026 | TNTC 90 – 85 TNST |
| Dec 31, 2025 | TNST 88 – 76 TNTC |
| Feb 22, 2025 | TNTC 77 – 74 TNST |
| Jan 24, 2025 | TNST 89 – 77 TNTC |
| Feb 14, 2024 | TNTC 70 – 50 TNST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TNTC | TNST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-17 | 18-14 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 10-8 |
| Home | 11-5 | 13-4 |
| Away | 4-11 | 4-8 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.1 | 75.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.1 | 75.6 |
| Massey | -6.4 (#283) | -6.6 (#290) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.50 (#308) | -1.50 (#307) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.77 (#300) | -2.08 (#317) |
| RPI | 0.425 (#304) | 0.395 (#341) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TNTC | TNST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.6% | 42.8% |
| 3PT% | 36.1% | 33.6% |
| REB / G | 32.8 | 33.1 |
| OREB / G | 8.9 | 9.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.02 | 1.04 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.9% | 49.3% |
| TOV% | 18.7% | 16.4% |
| ORB% | 24.8% | 24.9% |
| FT Rate | 16.2% | 24.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.5% | 51.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.1% | 20.2% |
| DRB% | 70.6% | 70.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.8% | 29.5% |
Game Analysis
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