Betting Lines
| Spread | TNST -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 136.5 Under |
| Money | TNTC +145 TNST -188 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TNTC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TNTC +20 | 120 | Won |
| Massey | TNST -3.9 (+23.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 139.3 (-19.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 29% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 25% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TNST -4.1 (+24.1) | 136.1 (-16.1) | 34% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TNST -3.7 (+23.7) | 135.5 (-15.5) | 34% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | TNST -3.7 (+23.7) | 135.8 (-15.8) | 37% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TNST -4.0 (+24.0) | 136.1 (-16.1) | 37% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 3, 2026 | TNTC 90 – 85 TNST |
| Dec 31, 2025 | TNST 88 – 76 TNTC |
| Feb 22, 2025 | TNTC 77 – 74 TNST |
| Jan 24, 2025 | TNST 89 – 77 TNTC |
| Jan 19, 2024 | TNST 85 – 53 TNTC |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TNTC | TNST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 10-21 | 18-15 |
| Conference | 5-13 | 10-8 |
| Home | 7-8 | 11-3 |
| Away | 3-13 | 5-10 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 64.9 | 70.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.7 | 72.2 |
| Massey | -12.0 (#334) | -4.7 (#253) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.01 (#332) | -0.48 (#218) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.45 (#332) | -0.65 (#226) |
| RPI | 0.415 (#321) | 0.484 (#198) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TNTC | TNST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.7% | 43.7% |
| 3PT% | 30.9% | 32.8% |
| REB / G | 29.9 | 33.0 |
| OREB / G | 5.9 | 9.6 |
| AST / TO | 0.89 | 0.89 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.8% | 49.6% |
| TOV% | 17.5% | 19.1% |
| ORB% | 17.8% | 28.2% |
| FT Rate | 22.5% | 27.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.1% | 49.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.5% | 18.9% |
| DRB% | 71.7% | 68.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.8% | 32.1% |
Game Analysis
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