Betting Lines
| Spread | TNST -7.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 142.5 Under |
| Money | TNST -300 TNTC +300 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TNST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TNST +32 | 138 | Won |
| Massey | TNST -8.4 (+23.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 142.6 (-4.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 77% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TNST -5.7 (+26.3) | 143.9 (-5.9) | 72% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TNST -6.4 (+25.6) | 141.8 (-3.8) | 72% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TNST -5.8 (+26.2) | 141.3 (-3.3) | 73% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TNST -5.7 (+26.3) | 142.8 (-4.8) | 72% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 3, 2026 | TNTC 90 – 85 TNST |
| Dec 31, 2025 | TNST 88 – 76 TNTC |
| Feb 22, 2025 | TNTC 77 – 74 TNST |
| Jan 24, 2025 | TNST 89 – 77 TNTC |
| Feb 14, 2024 | TNTC 70 – 50 TNST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TNST | TNTC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-15 | 10-21 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 5-13 |
| Home | 11-3 | 7-8 |
| Away | 5-10 | 3-13 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.2 | 64.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.2 | 73.7 |
| Massey | -5.3 (#264) | -9.9 (#318) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.27 (#286) | -1.77 (#321) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.21 (#268) | -2.18 (#315) |
| RPI | 0.426 (#299) | 0.416 (#311) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TNST | TNTC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.1% | 43.5% |
| 3PT% | 30.4% | 31.3% |
| REB / G | 34.0 | 30.5 |
| OREB / G | 11.2 | 5.6 |
| AST / TO | 0.82 | 0.83 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.9% | 49.0% |
| TOV% | 19.7% | 17.4% |
| ORB% | 30.6% | 16.9% |
| FT Rate | 27.1% | 24.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.0% | 52.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.7% | 15.3% |
| DRB% | 67.3% | 71.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 34.8% | 19.6% |
Game Analysis
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