Betting Lines
| Spread | TNTC -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 149.5 Over |
| Money | TNTC -125 TNST +105 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TNTC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TNTC +3 | 151 | Won |
| Massey | TNTC -1.1 (+1.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 156.9 (-5.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 65% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 64% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TNTC -0.3 (+2.7) | 150.6 (+0.4) | 53% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TNST -0.3 (+3.3) | 149.1 (+1.9) | 49% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TNTC -0.5 (+2.5) | 149.3 (+1.7) | 53% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TNTC -0.2 (+2.8) | 151.6 (-0.6) | 49% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 3, 2026 | TNTC 90 – 85 TNST |
| Dec 31, 2025 | TNST 88 – 76 TNTC |
| Jan 24, 2025 | TNST 89 – 77 TNTC |
| Feb 14, 2024 | TNTC 70 – 50 TNST |
| Jan 19, 2024 | TNST 85 – 53 TNTC |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TNTC | TNST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-17 | 17-16 |
| Conference | 10-10 | 12-8 |
| Home | 9-5 | 12-3 |
| Away | 5-10 | 4-10 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L3 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.8 | 76.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.1 | 75.4 |
| Massey | -7.4 (#283) | -5.4 (#255) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.10 (#272) | -1.16 (#282) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.66 (#291) | -1.59 (#286) |
| RPI | 0.464 (#249) | 0.463 (#250) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TNTC | TNST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.8% | 45.6% |
| 3PT% | 35.5% | 32.5% |
| REB / G | 34.4 | 39.1 |
| OREB / G | 8.9 | 12.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.20 | 0.81 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.9% | 51.1% |
| TOV% | 17.8% | 21.5% |
| ORB% | 25.1% | 35.0% |
| FT Rate | 20.4% | 28.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.3% | 49.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.9% | 17.7% |
| DRB% | 67.3% | 69.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 16.2% | 28.0% |
Game Analysis
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