Betting Lines
| Spread | TNST -7.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 153.5 Over |
| Money | TNST -410 TNTC +320 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TNST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TNTC +5 | 175 | Lost |
| Massey | TNST -10.8 (-15.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 156.8 (+18.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 92% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 93% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TNST -9.9 (-14.9) | 151.1 (+23.9) | 84% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TNST -9.0 (-14.0) | 150.0 (+25.0) | 83% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TNST -9.5 (-14.5) | 149.0 (+26.0) | 84% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | TNST -9.2 (-14.2) | 150.1 (+24.9) | 84% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 31, 2025 | TNST 88 – 76 TNTC |
| Feb 22, 2025 | TNTC 77 – 74 TNST |
| Jan 24, 2025 | TNST 89 – 77 TNTC |
| Feb 14, 2024 | TNTC 70 – 50 TNST |
| Jan 19, 2024 | TNST 85 – 53 TNTC |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TNST | TNTC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-10 | 13-18 |
| Conference | 15-5 | 8-12 |
| Home | 10-2 | 8-6 |
| Away | 10-7 | 5-12 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.9 | 70.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.1 | 75.6 |
| Massey | -4.1 (#230) | -11.9 (#330) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.04 (#177) | -1.96 (#328) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.57 (#209) | -2.50 (#327) |
| RPI | 0.517 (#136) | 0.423 (#311) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TNST | TNTC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.4% | 42.8% |
| 3PT% | 32.6% | 29.9% |
| REB / G | 36.1 | 34.7 |
| OREB / G | 12.6 | 10.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.08 | 0.81 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.4% | 48.1% |
| TOV% | 17.0% | 19.9% |
| ORB% | 32.9% | 31.0% |
| FT Rate | 23.4% | 24.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.9% | 53.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.6% | 15.7% |
| DRB% | 68.7% | 68.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 32.4% | 24.0% |
Game Analysis
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