Betting Lines
| Spread | TNST -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 148.5 Over |
| Money | TNST -185 TNTC +155 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TNST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TNST +12 | 166 | Won |
| Massey | TNST -2.6 (+9.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 155.0 (+11.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 51% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 56% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TNST -0.7 (+11.3) | 147.9 (+18.1) | 59% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TNST -2.8 (+9.2) | 149.0 (+17.0) | 75% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TNST -0.9 (+11.1) | 146.0 (+20.0) | 58% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TNST -1.5 (+10.5) | 145.6 (+20.4) | 59% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 3, 2026 | TNTC 90 – 85 TNST |
| Dec 31, 2025 | TNST 88 – 76 TNTC |
| Feb 22, 2025 | TNTC 77 – 74 TNST |
| Feb 14, 2024 | TNTC 70 – 50 TNST |
| Jan 19, 2024 | TNST 85 – 53 TNTC |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TNST | TNTC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-16 | 15-17 |
| Conference | 12-8 | 10-10 |
| Home | 12-3 | 9-5 |
| Away | 4-10 | 5-10 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.1 | 70.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.4 | 74.1 |
| Massey | -7.8 (#294) | -7.0 (#279) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.91 (#325) | -1.34 (#291) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.40 (#319) | -1.94 (#305) |
| RPI | 0.395 (#333) | 0.447 (#263) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TNST | TNTC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.7% | 42.3% |
| 3PT% | 30.1% | 35.6% |
| REB / G | 39.0 | 34.1 |
| OREB / G | 12.4 | 9.1 |
| AST / TO | 0.73 | 1.21 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.8% | 50.6% |
| TOV% | 21.7% | 17.9% |
| ORB% | 33.1% | 25.1% |
| FT Rate | 26.9% | 19.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.5% | 49.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.6% | 15.0% |
| DRB% | 68.5% | 65.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 28.4% | 16.0% |
Game Analysis
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