Betting Lines
| Spread | TNST -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 155.5 Over |
| Money | TNTC -105 TNST -115 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TNTC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TNST +12 | 164 | Lost |
| Massey | TNTC -3.1 (-15.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 152.5 (+11.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 51% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 62% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TNTC -2.2 (-14.2) | 149.6 (+14.4) | 65% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TNTC -0.8 (-12.8) | 149.4 (+14.6) | 53% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TNTC -1.8 (-13.8) | 145.7 (+18.3) | 63% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | TNTC -1.9 (-13.9) | 148.1 (+15.9) | 60% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 3, 2026 | TNTC 90 – 85 TNST |
| Feb 22, 2025 | TNTC 77 – 74 TNST |
| Jan 24, 2025 | TNST 89 – 77 TNTC |
| Feb 14, 2024 | TNTC 70 – 50 TNST |
| Jan 19, 2024 | TNST 85 – 53 TNTC |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TNTC | TNST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-18 | 23-10 |
| Conference | 8-12 | 15-5 |
| Home | 8-6 | 10-2 |
| Away | 5-12 | 10-7 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.2 | 77.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.6 | 75.1 |
| Massey | -5.1 (#245) | -4.2 (#232) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.52 (#223) | 0.10 (#161) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.69 (#217) | -0.46 (#197) |
| RPI | 0.470 (#234) | 0.502 (#167) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TNTC | TNST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.9% | 40.2% |
| 3PT% | 31.9% | 27.4% |
| REB / G | 33.9 | 35.7 |
| OREB / G | 8.9 | 13.3 |
| AST / TO | 0.88 | 0.79 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.7% | 44.5% |
| TOV% | 19.6% | 18.8% |
| ORB% | 25.9% | 33.1% |
| FT Rate | 25.7% | 25.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.7% | 53.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.2% | 21.3% |
| DRB% | 69.1% | 68.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.0% | 38.5% |
Game Analysis
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