I'll write on your tombstone, "I thank you for dinner." "Bungle in the Jungle" - Jethro Tull
Ohio Valley Conference · Hooper Eblen Center · December 31, 2025
Betting Lines
Spread TNST -1.5 Away covered
O/U 155.5 Over
Money TNTC -105 / TNST -115
Model Predictions
Spread Total TNTC win
Actual TNST +12 164 Lost
Massey TNTC -3.1 (-15.1)
Massey Totals 152.5 (+11.5)
Bradley-Terry 51%
Weighted B-T 62%
Efficiency Plus ML TNTC -0.8 (-12.8) 149.4 (+14.6) 53%
Baseline Tuned ML TNTC -1.8 (-13.8) 145.7 (+18.3) 63%
Baseline ML TNTC -1.9 (-13.9) 148.1 (+15.9) 60%
Baseline Plus ML TNTC -2.2 (-14.2) 149.6 (+14.4) 65%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Feb 3, 2026 TNTC 9085 TNST
Feb 22, 2025 TNTC 7774 TNST
Jan 24, 2025 TNST 8977 TNTC
Feb 14, 2024 TNTC 7050 TNST
Jan 19, 2024 TNST 8553 TNTC

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings TNTC TNST
Overall 13-18 23-10
Conference 8-12 15-5
Home 8-6 10-2
Away 5-12 10-7
Neutral 0-0 2-1
Last 5 2-3 3-2
Streak L2 L1
Avg Pts For 70.2 77.9
Avg Pts Against 75.6 75.1
Massey -5.1 (#245) -4.2 (#232)
Bradley-Terry -0.52 (#223) 0.10 (#161)
W. Bradley-Terry -0.69 (#217) -0.46 (#197)
RPI 0.470 (#234) 0.502 (#167)
Shooting & Four Factors TNTC TNST
FG% 44.9% 40.2%
3PT% 31.9% 27.4%
REB / G 33.9 35.7
OREB / G 8.9 13.3
AST / TO 0.88 0.79
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 50.7% 44.5%
TOV% 19.6% 18.8%
ORB% 25.9% 33.1%
FT Rate 25.7% 25.7%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 53.7% 53.5%
Opp TOV% 16.2% 21.3%
DRB% 69.1% 68.8%
Opp FT Rate 27.0% 38.5%

Game Analysis

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