Betting Lines
| Spread | UCD -5.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 132.5 Over |
| Money | UCD -200 CSUF +210 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UCD win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UCD +4 | 162 | Won |
| Massey | UCD -5.6 (-1.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 142.8 (+19.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 61% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 69% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UCD -3.9 (+0.1) | 139.9 (+22.1) | 65% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UCD -3.7 (+0.3) | 140.4 (+21.6) | 67% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UCD -3.9 (+0.1) | 140.0 (+22.0) | 66% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UCD -3.1 (+0.9) | 140.3 (+21.7) | 63% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 13, 2026 | CSUF 82 – 70 UCD |
| Feb 20, 2026 | CSUF 93 – 92 UCD |
| Jan 16, 2026 | UCD 74 – 69 CSUF |
| Feb 9, 2025 | UCD 65 – 49 CSUF |
| Jan 10, 2025 | UCD 63 – 53 CSUF |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UCD | CSUF |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-14 | 20-13 |
| Conference | 11-8 | 12-6 |
| Home | 10-4 | 11-2 |
| Away | 5-9 | 7-8 |
| Neutral | 3-1 | 2-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.2 | 68.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.7 | 66.3 |
| Massey | 1.5 (#150) | -0.0 (#172) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.10 (#190) | 0.14 (#169) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.08 (#169) | 0.07 (#170) |
| RPI | 0.499 (#178) | 0.512 (#158) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UCD | CSUF |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.4% | 41.7% |
| 3PT% | 34.2% | 35.9% |
| REB / G | 37.6 | 33.4 |
| OREB / G | 11.6 | 10.1 |
| AST / TO | 0.83 | 0.76 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.7% | 48.2% |
| TOV% | 22.3% | 19.3% |
| ORB% | 33.1% | 29.4% |
| FT Rate | 27.3% | 26.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.1% | 49.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.9% | 20.2% |
| DRB% | 71.7% | 68.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.2% | 25.6% |
Game Analysis
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