Betting Lines
| Spread | UCD -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 166.5 Under |
| Money | UCD -155 CSUF +130 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UCD win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UCD +5 | 143 | Won |
| Massey | UCD -4.9 (+0.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 170.9 (-27.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 70% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 75% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UCD -4.4 (+0.6) | 160.5 (-17.5) | 72% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UCD -4.5 (+0.5) | 159.9 (-16.9) | 77% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UCD -4.3 (+0.7) | 159.0 (-16.0) | 71% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UCD -4.4 (+0.6) | 160.7 (-17.7) | 77% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 13, 2026 | CSUF 82 – 70 UCD |
| Feb 20, 2026 | CSUF 93 – 92 UCD |
| Feb 9, 2025 | UCD 65 – 49 CSUF |
| Jan 10, 2025 | UCD 63 – 53 CSUF |
| Feb 9, 2024 | UCD 71 – 58 CSUF |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UCD | CSUF |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-14 | 18-16 |
| Conference | 11-9 | 12-8 |
| Home | 12-4 | 10-4 |
| Away | 6-9 | 6-10 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.1 | 80.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.0 | 82.2 |
| Massey | -0.8 (#181) | -2.2 (#198) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.08 (#164) | -0.19 (#187) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.41 (#142) | -0.07 (#175) |
| RPI | 0.497 (#181) | 0.504 (#167) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UCD | CSUF |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.9% | 44.1% |
| 3PT% | 35.5% | 34.1% |
| REB / G | 31.6 | 34.8 |
| OREB / G | 8.1 | 9.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.20 | 1.30 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.7% | 51.0% |
| TOV% | 18.4% | 14.7% |
| ORB% | 25.3% | 25.4% |
| FT Rate | 30.5% | 26.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.8% | 56.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.3% | 18.6% |
| DRB% | 68.4% | 70.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 30.7% | 26.8% |
Game Analysis
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