Betting Lines
| Spread | UCD -6.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 134.5 Under |
| Money | UCD -250 CSUF +260 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UCD win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UCD +13 | 129 | Won |
| Massey | UCD -7.5 (+5.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 131.9 (-2.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 71% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 74% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UCD -4.3 (+8.7) | 131.0 (-2.0) | 69% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UCD -5.3 (+7.7) | 131.1 (-2.1) | 73% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UCD -4.1 (+8.9) | 131.0 (-2.0) | 67% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UCD -4.2 (+8.8) | 132.0 (-3.0) | 72% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 13, 2026 | CSUF 82 – 70 UCD |
| Feb 20, 2026 | CSUF 93 – 92 UCD |
| Jan 16, 2026 | UCD 74 – 69 CSUF |
| Feb 9, 2025 | UCD 65 – 49 CSUF |
| Jan 10, 2025 | UCD 63 – 53 CSUF |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UCD | CSUF |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-13 | 14-18 |
| Conference | 14-6 | 7-13 |
| Home | 10-6 | 7-7 |
| Away | 8-6 | 6-10 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.5 | 66.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.0 | 70.4 |
| Massey | 0.3 (#157) | -3.8 (#235) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.21 (#158) | -0.09 (#183) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.04 (#167) | -0.34 (#199) |
| RPI | 0.493 (#187) | 0.505 (#167) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UCD | CSUF |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.2% | 40.6% |
| 3PT% | 33.7% | 30.7% |
| REB / G | 33.4 | 32.6 |
| OREB / G | 10.1 | 8.8 |
| AST / TO | 0.89 | 0.64 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.5% | 46.1% |
| TOV% | 20.2% | 19.2% |
| ORB% | 29.8% | 25.6% |
| FT Rate | 28.8% | 30.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.7% | 49.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.4% | 18.7% |
| DRB% | 70.8% | 69.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 29.0% | 26.0% |
Game Analysis
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