Betting Lines
| Spread | CSUF -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 156.5 Over |
| Money | CSUF -118 UCD -102 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CSUF win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CSUF +1 | 185 | Won |
| Massey | CSUF -1.5 (-0.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 159.9 (+25.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 51% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 52% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CSUF -0.3 (+0.7) | 152.2 (+32.8) | 50% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | CSUF -0.3 (+0.7) | 153.2 (+31.8) | 50% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CSUF -0.7 (+0.3) | 149.4 (+35.6) | 54% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | CSUF -0.1 (+0.9) | 151.5 (+33.5) | 49% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 13, 2026 | CSUF 82 – 70 UCD |
| Jan 16, 2026 | UCD 74 – 69 CSUF |
| Feb 9, 2025 | UCD 65 – 49 CSUF |
| Jan 10, 2025 | UCD 63 – 53 CSUF |
| Feb 9, 2024 | UCD 71 – 58 CSUF |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CSUF | UCD |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-16 | 19-14 |
| Conference | 12-8 | 11-9 |
| Home | 10-4 | 12-4 |
| Away | 6-10 | 6-9 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 80.3 | 76.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 82.2 | 76.0 |
| Massey | -2.3 (#205) | -0.8 (#179) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.20 (#187) | 0.25 (#145) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.09 (#171) | 0.38 (#136) |
| RPI | 0.498 (#184) | 0.505 (#164) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CSUF | UCD |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.7% | 44.9% |
| 3PT% | 33.2% | 35.6% |
| REB / G | 34.2 | 32.8 |
| OREB / G | 9.7 | 9.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.24 | 1.18 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.5% | 52.5% |
| TOV% | 15.4% | 18.4% |
| ORB% | 25.1% | 26.8% |
| FT Rate | 27.3% | 29.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 55.4% | 51.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.7% | 19.7% |
| DRB% | 71.1% | 69.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.6% | 27.7% |
Game Analysis
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