Betting Lines
| Spread | UCD -6.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 134.5 Under |
| Money | CSUF +230 UCD -280 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CSUF win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UCD +16 | 114 | Lost |
| Massey | UCD -4.1 (-11.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 132.4 (-18.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 19% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 20% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UCD -4.0 (-12.0) | 134.3 (-20.3) | 32% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UCD -3.4 (-12.6) | 132.6 (-18.6) | 37% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UCD -3.9 (-12.1) | 132.5 (-18.5) | 29% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UCD -3.7 (-12.3) | 133.8 (-19.8) | 35% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 13, 2026 | CSUF 82 – 70 UCD |
| Feb 20, 2026 | CSUF 93 – 92 UCD |
| Jan 16, 2026 | UCD 74 – 69 CSUF |
| Jan 10, 2025 | UCD 63 – 53 CSUF |
| Feb 9, 2024 | UCD 71 – 58 CSUF |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CSUF | UCD |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 6-26 | 15-17 |
| Conference | 1-19 | 9-11 |
| Home | 4-11 | 8-6 |
| Away | 2-15 | 7-10 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L12 | L7 |
| Avg Pts For | 62.3 | 66.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 78.7 | 71.1 |
| Massey | -10.7 (#327) | -3.4 (#223) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.79 (#322) | 0.20 (#158) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.27 (#319) | -0.21 (#185) |
| RPI | 0.428 (#310) | 0.521 (#141) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CSUF | UCD |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.5% | 40.3% |
| 3PT% | 27.7% | 31.3% |
| REB / G | 31.5 | 32.9 |
| OREB / G | 9.0 | 10.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.63 | 0.71 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 45.1% | 45.8% |
| TOV% | 20.5% | 20.6% |
| ORB% | 26.3% | 28.5% |
| FT Rate | 32.7% | 30.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.9% | 48.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.6% | 22.7% |
| DRB% | 67.9% | 65.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 29.4% | 30.5% |
Game Analysis
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