Betting Lines
| Spread | DEN -5.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 138.5 Over |
| Money | DEN -225 UND +220 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | DEN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | DEN +7 | 149 | Won |
| Massey | DEN -6.2 (+0.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 144.9 (+4.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 84% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 78% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | DEN -3.1 (+3.9) | 142.6 (+6.4) | 57% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | DEN -4.4 (+2.6) | 140.1 (+8.9) | 68% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | DEN -3.7 (+3.3) | 143.6 (+5.4) | 65% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | DEN -3.8 (+3.2) | 143.4 (+5.6) | 60% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 7, 2026 | UND 83 – 67 DEN |
| Feb 7, 2026 | DEN 98 – 79 UND |
| Jan 24, 2026 | UND 93 – 86 DEN |
| Feb 14, 2025 | DEN 68 – 64 UND |
| Jan 10, 2025 | UND 95 – 70 DEN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | DEN | UND |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-17 | 13-20 |
| Conference | 6-12 | 6-12 |
| Home | 9-5 | 8-8 |
| Away | 4-11 | 4-11 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.7 | 70.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.3 | 75.1 |
| Massey | -6.5 (#286) | -8.7 (#317) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.78 (#256) | -1.75 (#321) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.51 (#287) | -1.94 (#310) |
| RPI | 0.435 (#294) | 0.396 (#338) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | DEN | UND |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 49.1% | 41.8% |
| 3PT% | 35.0% | 33.0% |
| REB / G | 34.7 | 32.8 |
| OREB / G | 9.4 | 9.4 |
| AST / TO | 0.74 | 0.83 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.2% | 48.4% |
| TOV% | 21.7% | 19.9% |
| ORB% | 30.7% | 27.2% |
| FT Rate | 31.0% | 19.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.6% | 52.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.8% | 16.3% |
| DRB% | 72.6% | 71.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.8% | 19.9% |
Game Analysis
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