Betting Lines
| Spread | NAVY -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 129.5 Over |
| Money | L-MD +140 NAVY -138 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | L-MD win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | L-MD +2 | 136 | Won |
| Massey | NAVY -4.3 (+6.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 132.1 (+3.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 40% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 40% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NAVY -5.0 (+7.0) | 133.3 (+2.7) | 32% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NAVY -4.6 (+6.6) | 130.1 (+5.9) | 33% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NAVY -4.5 (+6.5) | 135.0 (+1.0) | 32% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | NAVY -4.4 (+6.4) | 135.2 (+0.8) | 34% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 26, 2026 | NAVY 78 – 51 L-MD |
| Jan 31, 2026 | NAVY 87 – 71 L-MD |
| Mar 1, 2025 | NAVY 81 – 68 L-MD |
| Jan 11, 2025 | L-MD 75 – 74 NAVY |
| Mar 6, 2024 | NAVY 64 – 48 L-MD |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | L-MD | NAVY |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-20 | 18-13 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 11-7 |
| Home | 9-6 | 9-6 |
| Away | 3-13 | 9-7 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 65.9 | 68.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.8 | 65.3 |
| Massey | -11.3 (#342) | -3.0 (#233) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.78 (#324) | -0.71 (#250) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.27 (#327) | -1.07 (#259) |
| RPI | 0.406 (#326) | 0.457 (#258) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | L-MD | NAVY |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.9% | 45.3% |
| 3PT% | 34.5% | 39.7% |
| REB / G | 29.2 | 34.4 |
| OREB / G | 8.8 | 10.1 |
| AST / TO | 0.81 | 1.20 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.8% | 53.1% |
| TOV% | 23.1% | 18.8% |
| ORB% | 26.3% | 30.3% |
| FT Rate | 17.7% | 14.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 56.7% | 53.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.2% | 16.9% |
| DRB% | 69.9% | 71.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.4% | 20.2% |
Game Analysis
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