Betting Lines
| Spread | PENN -6.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 141.5 Over |
| Money | DART +240 PENN -250 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | DART win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | DART +4 | 146 | Won |
| Massey | PENN -3.4 (+7.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 143.3 (+2.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 24% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 13% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PENN -4.4 (+8.4) | 140.1 (+5.9) | 41% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PENN -3.3 (+7.3) | 139.9 (+6.1) | 40% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PENN -4.8 (+8.8) | 140.6 (+5.4) | 31% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | PENN -4.4 (+8.4) | 141.0 (+5.0) | 35% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 28, 2026 | PENN 80 – 71 DART |
| Jan 17, 2026 | PENN 84 – 74 DART |
| Feb 22, 2025 | PENN 88 – 75 DART |
| Jan 11, 2025 | DART 73 – 70 PENN |
| Feb 24, 2024 | PENN 82 – 69 DART |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | DART | PENN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 10-18 | 17-13 |
| Conference | 6-8 | 9-5 |
| Home | 7-5 | 11-4 |
| Away | 3-11 | 6-9 |
| Neutral | 0-2 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 3-2 |
| Streak | W1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.9 | 74.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.4 | 72.4 |
| Massey | -7.3 (#296) | 0.1 (#169) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.89 (#330) | -0.07 (#187) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.57 (#336) | 0.12 (#167) |
| RPI | 0.411 (#321) | 0.507 (#167) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | DART | PENN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.0% | 46.2% |
| 3PT% | 31.1% | 36.5% |
| REB / G | 34.5 | 36.4 |
| OREB / G | 8.5 | 9.7 |
| AST / TO | 0.80 | 1.11 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.6% | 53.5% |
| TOV% | 21.1% | 20.3% |
| ORB% | 23.6% | 29.4% |
| FT Rate | 17.7% | 20.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.5% | 49.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.0% | 14.8% |
| DRB% | 73.3% | 71.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.6% | 22.5% |
Game Analysis
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