Betting Lines
| Spread | VAL -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 134.5 Over |
| Money | EVAN +130 VAL -120 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | EVAN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | VAL +7 | 145 | Lost |
| Massey | EVAN -1.6 (-8.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 136.4 (+8.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 66% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 68% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | EVAN -0.4 (-7.4) | 140.1 (+4.9) | 42% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | VAL -0.8 (-6.2) | 138.4 (+6.6) | 42% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | EVAN -0.8 (-7.8) | 137.5 (+7.5) | 50% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | EVAN -0.1 (-7.1) | 138.3 (+6.7) | 39% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 28, 2026 | EVAN 80 – 79 VAL |
| Feb 7, 2026 | VAL 70 – 63 EVAN |
| Feb 17, 2025 | EVAN 79 – 69 VAL |
| Jan 25, 2025 | EVAN 78 – 68 VAL |
| Feb 3, 2024 | EVAN 63 – 62 VAL |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | EVAN | VAL |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 5-27 | 11-21 |
| Conference | 1-19 | 5-15 |
| Home | 3-10 | 8-7 |
| Away | 1-14 | 2-12 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L6 | L5 |
| Avg Pts For | 62.4 | 68.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.0 | 74.0 |
| Massey | -11.5 (#343) | -9.1 (#322) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.60 (#313) | -1.59 (#311) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.13 (#320) | -2.08 (#316) |
| RPI | 0.417 (#315) | 0.399 (#332) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | EVAN | VAL |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 38.9% | 42.8% |
| 3PT% | 30.8% | 28.4% |
| REB / G | 32.7 | 33.4 |
| OREB / G | 8.5 | 8.3 |
| AST / TO | 0.78 | 0.96 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 44.0% | 47.7% |
| TOV% | 18.2% | 18.9% |
| ORB% | 22.5% | 23.4% |
| FT Rate | 19.9% | 18.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.1% | 51.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.3% | 16.0% |
| DRB% | 75.3% | 74.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.7% | 23.2% |
Game Analysis
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