Betting Lines
| Spread | CAN -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 129.5 Over |
| Money | CAN -138 MRST +140 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CAN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MRST +18 | 134 | Lost |
| Massey | CAN -8.1 (-26.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 132.4 (+1.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 70% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 82% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CAN -4.7 (-22.7) | 135.3 (-1.3) | 69% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | CAN -4.6 (-22.6) | 134.9 (-0.9) | 67% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CAN -4.6 (-22.6) | 134.3 (-0.3) | 70% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | CAN -4.7 (-22.7) | 133.9 (+0.1) | 71% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 31, 2026 | MRST 88 – 86 CAN |
| Feb 22, 2025 | MRST 89 – 81 CAN |
| Jan 25, 2025 | MRST 70 – 47 CAN |
| Feb 17, 2024 | MRST 78 – 55 CAN |
| Jan 28, 2024 | MRST 80 – 71 CAN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CAN | MRST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 10-20 | 13-20 |
| Conference | 8-12 | 6-14 |
| Home | 7-7 | 5-10 |
| Away | 3-12 | 4-9 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 4-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.4 | 63.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.0 | 66.7 |
| Massey | -4.9 (#256) | -9.0 (#320) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.57 (#310) | -1.71 (#319) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.58 (#294) | -2.28 (#328) |
| RPI | 0.446 (#277) | 0.395 (#340) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CAN | MRST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 39.6% | 39.5% |
| 3PT% | 32.7% | 31.4% |
| REB / G | 34.9 | 34.6 |
| OREB / G | 12.8 | 9.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.03 | 0.89 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.3% | 46.7% |
| TOV% | 19.1% | 18.7% |
| ORB% | 32.9% | 25.3% |
| FT Rate | 17.5% | 16.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.4% | 50.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.2% | 18.7% |
| DRB% | 67.7% | 73.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.4% | 19.3% |
Game Analysis
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