Don't talk to me about your big, big heroes "Kelly's Heroes" - Black Grape
Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference · Koessler Athletic Center · January 28, 2024
Betting Lines
Spread CAN -2.5 Away covered
O/U 131.5 Over
Money CAN -138 / MRST +110
Model Predictions
Spread Total CAN win
Actual MRST +9 151 Lost
Massey CAN -4.5 (-13.5)
Massey Totals 129.2 (+21.8)
Bradley-Terry 73%
Weighted B-T 79%
Efficiency Plus ML CAN -2.4 (-11.4) 130.4 (+20.6) 62%
Baseline Tuned ML CAN -2.5 (-11.5) 130.3 (+20.7) 63%
Baseline ML CAN -2.2 (-11.2) 131.0 (+20.0) 63%
Baseline Plus ML CAN -2.8 (-11.8) 131.8 (+19.2) 62%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Jan 31, 2026 MRST 8886 CAN
Feb 22, 2025 MRST 8981 CAN
Jan 25, 2025 MRST 7047 CAN
Feb 17, 2024 MRST 7855 CAN
Feb 5, 2023 MRST 7567 CAN

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings CAN MRST
Overall 14-18 18-13
Conference 8-12 12-8
Home 8-4 9-4
Away 3-12 8-8
Neutral 3-2 1-1
Last 5 2-3 2-3
Streak L1 L1
Avg Pts For 69.1 64.6
Avg Pts Against 72.2 62.2
Massey -3.0 (#221) -3.9 (#238)
Bradley-Terry -0.66 (#242) -0.98 (#267)
W. Bradley-Terry -0.75 (#236) -1.32 (#276)
RPI 0.477 (#215) 0.437 (#287)
Shooting & Four Factors CAN MRST
FG% 43.6% 44.4%
3PT% 34.6% 32.8%
REB / G 36.7 32.2
OREB / G 11.7 7.2
AST / TO 0.98 0.91
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 50.0% 50.4%
TOV% 19.2% 18.7%
ORB% 32.1% 22.6%
FT Rate 19.4% 18.5%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 50.5% 47.5%
Opp TOV% 16.7% 21.8%
DRB% 70.0% 74.5%
Opp FT Rate 21.1% 27.5%

Game Analysis

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