Betting Lines
| Spread | COPP -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 151.5 Under |
| Money | COPP -110 MORG +110 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | COPP win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MORG +17 | 149 | Lost |
| Massey | COPP -0.5 (-17.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 159.6 (-10.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 58% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 72% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MORG -0.7 (-16.3) | 154.5 (-5.5) | 49% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MORG -1.2 (-15.8) | 153.3 (-4.3) | 45% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | COPP -0.2 (-17.2) | 153.8 (-4.8) | 52% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | MORG -0.0 (-17.0) | 151.9 (-2.9) | 49% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 6, 2026 | MORG 70 – 66 COPP |
| Jan 31, 2026 | MORG 89 – 80 COPP |
| Mar 7, 2025 | COPP 82 – 75 MORG |
| Jan 25, 2025 | MORG 80 – 64 COPP |
| Mar 8, 2024 | MORG 78 – 60 COPP |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | COPP | MORG |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 9-23 | 15-16 |
| Conference | 4-10 | 7-7 |
| Home | 4-6 | 10-2 |
| Away | 5-16 | 3-12 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.0 | 69.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 83.2 | 75.3 |
| Massey | -7.6 (#301) | -4.1 (#243) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.76 (#254) | -0.38 (#208) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.96 (#246) | -1.10 (#261) |
| RPI | 0.464 (#243) | 0.493 (#188) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | COPP | MORG |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.2% | 42.0% |
| 3PT% | 33.5% | 37.7% |
| REB / G | 30.9 | 33.4 |
| OREB / G | 6.5 | 12.4 |
| AST / TO | 0.72 | 0.84 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.5% | 47.6% |
| TOV% | 19.8% | 22.1% |
| ORB% | 18.4% | 32.7% |
| FT Rate | 25.2% | 19.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.2% | 51.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.7% | 24.1% |
| DRB% | 62.9% | 60.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.0% | 31.9% |
Game Analysis
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