Betting Lines
| Spread | MORG -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 155.5 Over |
| Money | COPP +130 MORG -155 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | COPP win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MORG +9 | 169 | Lost |
| Massey | MORG -3.4 (-5.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 158.2 (+10.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 33% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 37% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MORG -2.0 (-7.0) | 149.9 (+19.1) | 32% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MORG -3.2 (-5.8) | 143.3 (+25.7) | 36% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MORG -2.8 (-6.2) | 145.4 (+23.6) | 36% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MORG -2.9 (-6.1) | 144.7 (+24.3) | 28% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 6, 2026 | MORG 70 – 66 COPP |
| Mar 7, 2025 | COPP 82 – 75 MORG |
| Jan 25, 2025 | MORG 80 – 64 COPP |
| Mar 8, 2024 | MORG 78 – 60 COPP |
| Jan 20, 2024 | MORG 89 – 86 COPP |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | COPP | MORG |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 7-24 | 14-16 |
| Conference | 5-9 | 10-4 |
| Home | 3-6 | 9-6 |
| Away | 4-15 | 5-9 |
| Neutral | 0-3 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L3 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 64.3 | 71.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 81.0 | 80.1 |
| Massey | -23.8 (#364) | -17.2 (#357) |
| Bradley-Terry | -3.56 (#359) | -2.28 (#341) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -4.78 (#362) | -3.61 (#353) |
| RPI | 0.366 (#358) | 0.384 (#352) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | COPP | MORG |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 39.5% | 39.8% |
| 3PT% | 31.9% | 29.9% |
| REB / G | 30.8 | 32.2 |
| OREB / G | 10.4 | 11.1 |
| AST / TO | 0.72 | 0.87 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 45.4% | 44.9% |
| TOV% | 22.8% | 18.9% |
| ORB% | 28.8% | 29.9% |
| FT Rate | 25.3% | 30.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 58.6% | 54.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.6% | 16.9% |
| DRB% | 64.2% | 65.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 33.0% | 39.7% |
Game Analysis
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