Betting Lines
| Spread | MORG -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 136.5 Over |
| Money | COPP +110 MORG -110 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | COPP win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MORG +3 | 175 | Lost |
| Massey | COPP -2.9 (-5.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 132.0 (+43.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 76% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 75% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | COPP -0.5 (-3.5) | 134.6 (+40.4) | 47% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MORG -0.6 (-2.4) | 133.7 (+41.3) | 40% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | COPP -1.1 (-4.1) | 131.1 (+43.9) | 59% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | COPP -1.2 (-4.2) | 133.6 (+41.4) | 52% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 6, 2026 | MORG 70 – 66 COPP |
| Jan 31, 2026 | MORG 89 – 80 COPP |
| Mar 7, 2025 | COPP 82 – 75 MORG |
| Jan 25, 2025 | MORG 80 – 64 COPP |
| Mar 8, 2024 | MORG 78 – 60 COPP |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | COPP | MORG |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 2-27 | 11-20 |
| Conference | 1-13 | 7-7 |
| Home | 2-8 | 8-5 |
| Away | 0-17 | 3-12 |
| Neutral | 0-2 | 0-3 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L13 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 57.9 | 69.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.8 | 80.0 |
| Massey | -16.3 (#359) | -15.4 (#355) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.74 (#348) | -3.19 (#356) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -3.30 (#344) | -3.64 (#354) |
| RPI | 0.361 (#358) | 0.377 (#348) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | COPP | MORG |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 37.1% | 41.5% |
| 3PT% | 25.4% | 30.9% |
| REB / G | 30.4 | 32.9 |
| OREB / G | 9.3 | 10.6 |
| AST / TO | 0.50 | 0.72 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 41.0% | 45.8% |
| TOV% | 23.5% | 20.6% |
| ORB% | 25.4% | 28.2% |
| FT Rate | 18.8% | 17.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.1% | 54.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.3% | 16.6% |
| DRB% | 61.2% | 62.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.8% | 27.5% |
Game Analysis
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