Betting Lines
| Spread | MORG -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 151.5 Over |
| Money | COPP +160 MORG -190 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | COPP win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | COPP +7 | 157 | Won |
| Massey | MORG -3.5 (+10.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 150.6 (+6.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 37% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 31% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MORG -3.5 (+10.5) | 147.3 (+9.7) | 39% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MORG -1.8 (+8.8) | 147.4 (+9.6) | 37% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MORG -3.0 (+10.0) | 146.1 (+10.9) | 36% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | MORG -2.7 (+9.7) | 146.7 (+10.3) | 38% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 6, 2026 | MORG 70 – 66 COPP |
| Jan 31, 2026 | MORG 89 – 80 COPP |
| Jan 25, 2025 | MORG 80 – 64 COPP |
| Mar 8, 2024 | MORG 78 – 60 COPP |
| Jan 20, 2024 | MORG 89 – 86 COPP |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | COPP | MORG |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 6-24 | 14-18 |
| Conference | 4-10 | 7-7 |
| Home | 5-6 | 11-4 |
| Away | 1-17 | 2-13 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 61.3 | 76.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.9 | 82.8 |
| Massey | -18.6 (#362) | -11.8 (#338) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.95 (#356) | -1.85 (#329) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -3.79 (#359) | -2.34 (#328) |
| RPI | 0.379 (#357) | 0.410 (#333) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | COPP | MORG |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 38.9% | 45.8% |
| 3PT% | 28.3% | 31.5% |
| REB / G | 30.4 | 36.0 |
| OREB / G | 9.7 | 12.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.71 | 0.98 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 43.5% | 49.3% |
| TOV% | 21.7% | 17.6% |
| ORB% | 26.7% | 33.9% |
| FT Rate | 25.1% | 25.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 56.2% | 53.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.1% | 16.8% |
| DRB% | 66.5% | 62.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.7% | 26.9% |
Game Analysis
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