Betting Lines
| Spread | JAX -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 122.5 Over |
| Money | JXST +140 JAX -138 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | JXST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | JAX +6 | 130 | Lost |
| Massey | JAX -3.6 (-2.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 121.2 (+8.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 23% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 16% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | JAX -3.8 (-2.2) | 125.9 (+4.1) | 31% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | JAX -3.8 (-2.2) | 128.3 (+1.7) | 34% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | JAX -4.0 (-2.0) | 128.2 (+1.8) | 30% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | JAX -3.5 (-2.5) | 128.5 (+1.5) | 33% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 3, 2023 | JAX 62 – 46 JXST |
| Mar 6, 2022 | JAX 54 – 51 JXST |
| Feb 5, 2022 | JXST 64 – 58 JAX |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | JXST | JAX |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-18 | 13-16 |
| Conference | 6-12 | 6-12 |
| Home | 9-5 | 7-6 |
| Away | 3-12 | 6-10 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 2-3 |
| Streak | W2 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.1 | 61.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.2 | 64.7 |
| Massey | -8.5 (#313) | -0.9 (#189) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.35 (#296) | 0.55 (#126) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.74 (#298) | 0.74 (#120) |
| RPI | 0.419 (#311) | 0.543 (#101) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | JXST | JAX |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.7% | 43.5% |
| 3PT% | 34.9% | 35.3% |
| REB / G | 34.5 | 33.2 |
| OREB / G | 9.5 | 7.6 |
| AST / TO | 0.84 | 1.00 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.9% | 50.9% |
| TOV% | 20.2% | 21.9% |
| ORB% | 27.8% | 25.1% |
| FT Rate | 19.0% | 16.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.7% | 49.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.4% | 15.1% |
| DRB% | 74.1% | 74.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.4% | 17.4% |
Game Analysis
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