Betting Lines
| Spread | JAX -5.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 127.5 Under |
| Money | JAX -200 JXST +210 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | JAX win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | JAX +16 | 108 | Won |
| Massey | JAX -9.6 (+6.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 124.7 (-16.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 94% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | JAX -6.2 (+9.8) | 127.4 (-19.4) | 78% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | JAX -5.1 (+10.9) | 125.5 (-17.5) | 71% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | JAX -6.3 (+9.7) | 131.1 (-23.1) | 77% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | JAX -6.4 (+9.6) | 130.7 (-22.7) | 78% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 14, 2023 | JAX 68 – 62 JXST |
| Mar 6, 2022 | JAX 54 – 51 JXST |
| Feb 5, 2022 | JXST 64 – 58 JAX |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | JAX | JXST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-16 | 13-18 |
| Conference | 6-12 | 6-12 |
| Home | 7-6 | 9-5 |
| Away | 6-10 | 3-12 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L3 | W2 |
| Avg Pts For | 61.0 | 67.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 64.7 | 71.2 |
| Massey | -0.2 (#175) | -5.5 (#266) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.95 (#95) | -0.99 (#269) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.27 (#92) | -1.31 (#269) |
| RPI | 0.574 (#60) | 0.446 (#276) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | JAX | JXST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.6% | 42.2% |
| 3PT% | 34.4% | 36.0% |
| REB / G | 33.6 | 35.4 |
| OREB / G | 7.7 | 10.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.00 | 0.87 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.9% | 49.3% |
| TOV% | 21.5% | 19.4% |
| ORB% | 24.9% | 29.0% |
| FT Rate | 17.3% | 19.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.3% | 52.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.9% | 16.6% |
| DRB% | 71.0% | 71.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 16.2% | 24.3% |
Game Analysis
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