Betting Lines
| Spread | TCU -4.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 149.0 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TCU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TCU +14 | 150 | Won |
| Massey | TCU -1.9 (+12.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 148.9 (+1.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 34% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 48% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TCU -3.3 (+10.7) | 150.4 (-0.4) | 66% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TCU -3.2 (+10.8) | 147.9 (+2.1) | 71% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TCU -2.6 (+11.4) | 148.2 (+1.8) | 61% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TCU -2.6 (+11.4) | 149.1 (+0.9) | 65% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 28, 2026 | TCU 77 – 68 KSU |
| Feb 7, 2026 | TCU 84 – 82 KSU |
| Jan 4, 2025 | TCU 63 – 62 KSU |
| Feb 17, 2024 | TCU 75 – 72 KSU |
| Mar 10, 2023 | TCU 80 – 67 KSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TCU | KSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-13 | 26-10 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 11-7 |
| Home | 13-4 | 16-1 |
| Away | 4-7 | 4-7 |
| Neutral | 5-2 | 6-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.3 | 76.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.4 | 69.9 |
| Massey | 11.5 (#30) | 13.6 (#15) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.44 (#22) | 3.79 (#5) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.50 (#13) | 4.39 (#6) |
| RPI | 0.562 (#70) | 0.647 (#6) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TCU | KSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.9% | 47.2% |
| 3PT% | 29.6% | 35.6% |
| REB / G | 37.9 | 35.5 |
| OREB / G | 12.6 | 11.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.39 | 1.41 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.4% | 53.3% |
| TOV% | 16.6% | 18.7% |
| ORB% | 35.1% | 32.8% |
| FT Rate | 25.8% | 26.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.7% | 47.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 23.5% | 22.8% |
| DRB% | 69.3% | 70.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.1% | 24.7% |
Game Analysis
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