Betting Lines
| Spread | TCU -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 148.0 Under |
| Money | KSU +122 TCU -145 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | KSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TCU +13 | 147 | Lost |
| Massey | KSU -0.5 (-13.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 146.3 (+0.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 63% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 58% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TCU -0.2 (-12.8) | 147.4 (-0.4) | 52% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | KSU -0.4 (-13.4) | 145.9 (+1.1) | 52% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | KSU -0.5 (-13.5) | 145.6 (+1.4) | 55% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | KSU -0.6 (-13.6) | 145.9 (+1.1) | 54% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 28, 2026 | TCU 77 – 68 KSU |
| Feb 7, 2026 | TCU 84 – 82 KSU |
| Jan 4, 2025 | TCU 63 – 62 KSU |
| Feb 17, 2024 | TCU 75 – 72 KSU |
| Feb 8, 2023 | KSU 82 – 61 TCU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | KSU | TCU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 26-10 | 22-13 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 9-9 |
| Home | 16-1 | 13-4 |
| Away | 4-7 | 4-7 |
| Neutral | 6-2 | 5-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.2 | 75.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.9 | 68.4 |
| Massey | 13.5 (#18) | 13.0 (#21) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.71 (#10) | 2.18 (#29) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.20 (#13) | 2.89 (#21) |
| RPI | 0.583 (#41) | 0.537 (#106) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | KSU | TCU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.4% | 46.2% |
| 3PT% | 34.5% | 29.6% |
| REB / G | 35.5 | 35.7 |
| OREB / G | 10.4 | 11.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.19 | 1.34 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.6% | 50.5% |
| TOV% | 19.7% | 17.2% |
| ORB% | 31.0% | 32.5% |
| FT Rate | 27.9% | 24.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.4% | 48.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.9% | 21.9% |
| DRB% | 70.9% | 69.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.5% | 20.9% |
Game Analysis
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