Betting Lines
| Spread | KSU -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 148.5 Under |
| Money | KSU -188 TCU +145 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | KSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | KSU +21 | 143 | Won |
| Massey | KSU -2.6 (+18.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 148.8 (-5.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 75% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 66% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | KSU -2.5 (+18.5) | 148.9 (-5.9) | 69% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | KSU -2.8 (+18.2) | 148.4 (-5.4) | 70% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | KSU -3.4 (+17.6) | 147.5 (-4.5) | 66% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | KSU -3.4 (+17.6) | 147.9 (-4.9) | 69% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 28, 2026 | TCU 77 – 68 KSU |
| Feb 7, 2026 | TCU 84 – 82 KSU |
| Jan 4, 2025 | TCU 63 – 62 KSU |
| Feb 17, 2024 | TCU 75 – 72 KSU |
| Mar 10, 2023 | TCU 80 – 67 KSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | KSU | TCU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 26-10 | 22-13 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 9-9 |
| Home | 16-1 | 13-4 |
| Away | 4-7 | 4-7 |
| Neutral | 6-2 | 5-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.2 | 75.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.9 | 68.4 |
| Massey | 13.4 (#21) | 14.4 (#17) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.98 (#7) | 2.50 (#20) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.46 (#12) | 3.52 (#9) |
| RPI | 0.618 (#17) | 0.582 (#45) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | KSU | TCU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.6% | 46.1% |
| 3PT% | 35.3% | 29.1% |
| REB / G | 35.8 | 36.5 |
| OREB / G | 10.6 | 11.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.22 | 1.37 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.7% | 50.4% |
| TOV% | 19.4% | 16.6% |
| ORB% | 31.5% | 33.3% |
| FT Rate | 28.4% | 25.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.9% | 46.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.2% | 22.9% |
| DRB% | 69.7% | 69.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.4% | 19.4% |
Game Analysis
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