Betting Lines
| Spread | FUR -6.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 139.5 Over |
| Money | FUR -275 UNCG +260 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | FUR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNCG +8 | 168 | Lost |
| Massey | FUR -5.9 (-13.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 135.7 (+32.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 75% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 75% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | FUR -4.8 (-12.8) | 140.5 (+27.5) | 70% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | FUR -5.5 (-13.5) | 138.9 (+29.1) | 70% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | FUR -5.8 (-13.8) | 138.1 (+29.9) | 71% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | FUR -5.8 (-13.8) | 139.1 (+28.9) | 70% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 8, 2026 | FUR 81 – 75 UNCG |
| Feb 8, 2026 | UNCG 67 – 64 FUR |
| Jan 23, 2026 | FUR 89 – 66 UNCG |
| Feb 15, 2025 | UNCG 58 – 50 FUR |
| Jan 4, 2025 | UNCG 84 – 67 FUR |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | FUR | UNCG |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 28-8 | 20-12 |
| Conference | 15-3 | 14-4 |
| Home | 14-2 | 11-3 |
| Away | 8-3 | 8-6 |
| Neutral | 6-3 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 79.2 | 69.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.4 | 65.2 |
| Massey | 3.7 (#112) | 1.9 (#143) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.53 (#127) | 0.10 (#171) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.59 (#133) | 0.29 (#151) |
| RPI | 0.515 (#151) | 0.519 (#143) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | FUR | UNCG |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.7% | 41.2% |
| 3PT% | 35.9% | 34.5% |
| REB / G | 34.1 | 35.4 |
| OREB / G | 8.9 | 9.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.44 | 1.07 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 57.0% | 48.2% |
| TOV% | 18.0% | 18.9% |
| ORB% | 27.5% | 27.1% |
| FT Rate | 19.6% | 22.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.2% | 47.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.4% | 19.6% |
| DRB% | 74.2% | 72.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.7% | 21.6% |
Game Analysis
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