Betting Lines
| Spread | FUR -10.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 149.5 Under |
| Money | FUR -750 UNCG +525 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | FUR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNCG +3 | 131 | Lost |
| Massey | FUR -12.6 (-15.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 153.2 (-22.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 88% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 92% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | FUR -11.1 (-14.1) | 148.9 (-17.9) | 86% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | FUR -10.3 (-13.3) | 148.7 (-17.7) | 85% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | FUR -11.3 (-14.3) | 147.9 (-16.9) | 88% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | FUR -11.3 (-14.3) | 149.3 (-18.3) | 86% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 8, 2026 | FUR 81 – 75 UNCG |
| Jan 23, 2026 | FUR 89 – 66 UNCG |
| Feb 15, 2025 | UNCG 58 – 50 FUR |
| Jan 4, 2025 | UNCG 84 – 67 FUR |
| Feb 4, 2024 | UNCG 89 – 87 FUR |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | FUR | UNCG |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-13 | 15-19 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 9-9 |
| Home | 11-5 | 8-6 |
| Away | 7-5 | 4-9 |
| Neutral | 4-3 | 3-4 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.9 | 76.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.5 | 81.9 |
| Massey | -1.2 (#185) | -10.8 (#318) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.11 (#183) | -1.60 (#307) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.24 (#187) | -2.08 (#306) |
| RPI | 0.515 (#146) | 0.431 (#305) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | FUR | UNCG |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.3% | 43.3% |
| 3PT% | 33.0% | 34.3% |
| REB / G | 37.1 | 34.9 |
| OREB / G | 10.5 | 10.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.22 | 1.06 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.1% | 50.2% |
| TOV% | 18.8% | 15.6% |
| ORB% | 31.3% | 28.8% |
| FT Rate | 20.9% | 30.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.7% | 56.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.0% | 13.0% |
| DRB% | 71.3% | 69.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.3% | 21.7% |
Game Analysis
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