Betting Lines
| Spread | FUR -4.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 150.5 Over |
| Money | UNCG +160 FUR -192 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNCG win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | FUR +23 | 155 | Lost |
| Massey | FUR -4.7 (-18.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 151.9 (+3.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 31% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 26% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | FUR -4.1 (-18.9) | 146.5 (+8.5) | 38% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | FUR -4.1 (-18.9) | 144.0 (+11.0) | 32% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | FUR -3.9 (-19.1) | 144.3 (+10.7) | 33% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | FUR -4.2 (-18.8) | 146.3 (+8.7) | 38% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 8, 2026 | FUR 81 – 75 UNCG |
| Feb 8, 2026 | UNCG 67 – 64 FUR |
| Feb 15, 2025 | UNCG 58 – 50 FUR |
| Jan 4, 2025 | UNCG 84 – 67 FUR |
| Feb 4, 2024 | UNCG 89 – 87 FUR |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNCG | FUR |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-19 | 22-13 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 10-8 |
| Home | 8-6 | 11-5 |
| Away | 4-9 | 7-5 |
| Neutral | 3-4 | 4-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.6 | 74.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 81.9 | 72.5 |
| Massey | -9.5 (#304) | -1.5 (#189) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.48 (#302) | -0.12 (#185) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.90 (#295) | -0.25 (#188) |
| RPI | 0.430 (#300) | 0.504 (#170) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNCG | FUR |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.7% | 45.9% |
| 3PT% | 35.4% | 31.7% |
| REB / G | 34.6 | 38.1 |
| OREB / G | 10.4 | 11.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.04 | 1.19 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.6% | 53.5% |
| TOV% | 15.7% | 18.7% |
| ORB% | 28.4% | 32.4% |
| FT Rate | 30.8% | 20.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 56.1% | 50.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 13.5% | 14.4% |
| DRB% | 69.9% | 71.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.8% | 18.7% |
Game Analysis
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