Betting Lines
| Spread | FUR -4.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 147.5 Over |
| Money | FUR -188 UNCG +145 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | FUR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNCG +2 | 176 | Lost |
| Massey | FUR -3.2 (-5.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 151.7 (+24.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 48% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 46% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | FUR -2.5 (-4.5) | 149.5 (+26.5) | 61% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | FUR -3.6 (-5.6) | 149.8 (+26.2) | 63% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | FUR -2.2 (-4.2) | 148.0 (+28.0) | 63% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | FUR -2.5 (-4.5) | 148.6 (+27.4) | 59% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 8, 2026 | FUR 81 – 75 UNCG |
| Feb 8, 2026 | UNCG 67 – 64 FUR |
| Jan 23, 2026 | FUR 89 – 66 UNCG |
| Feb 15, 2025 | UNCG 58 – 50 FUR |
| Jan 4, 2025 | UNCG 84 – 67 FUR |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | FUR | UNCG |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-16 | 21-11 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 12-6 |
| Home | 12-3 | 11-3 |
| Away | 3-10 | 7-7 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 78.8 | 73.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.7 | 70.7 |
| Massey | 1.6 (#144) | 1.9 (#138) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.30 (#146) | 1.03 (#99) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.28 (#156) | 1.13 (#105) |
| RPI | 0.517 (#141) | 0.554 (#93) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | FUR | UNCG |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.2% | 44.2% |
| 3PT% | 33.7% | 37.7% |
| REB / G | 38.1 | 35.4 |
| OREB / G | 11.6 | 10.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.37 | 1.37 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.1% | 52.4% |
| TOV% | 16.7% | 15.4% |
| ORB% | 30.2% | 28.8% |
| FT Rate | 21.3% | 19.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.6% | 47.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.5% | 17.0% |
| DRB% | 73.3% | 69.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.0% | 25.6% |
Game Analysis
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