Betting Lines
| Spread | UNCG -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 139.5 Over |
| Money | UNCG -120 FUR +100 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNCG win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNCG +17 | 151 | Won |
| Massey | UNCG -0.8 (+16.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 127.6 (+23.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 12% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 10% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNCG -0.8 (+16.2) | 133.2 (+17.8) | 47% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNCG -1.3 (+15.7) | 136.3 (+14.7) | 55% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | FUR -0.7 (+17.7) | 134.0 (+17.0) | 45% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | UNCG -0.0 (+17.0) | 134.7 (+16.3) | 47% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 8, 2026 | FUR 81 – 75 UNCG |
| Feb 8, 2026 | UNCG 67 – 64 FUR |
| Jan 23, 2026 | FUR 89 – 66 UNCG |
| Feb 15, 2025 | UNCG 58 – 50 FUR |
| Feb 4, 2024 | UNCG 89 – 87 FUR |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNCG | FUR |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-12 | 25-10 |
| Conference | 13-5 | 11-7 |
| Home | 11-3 | 13-3 |
| Away | 8-6 | 9-6 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.4 | 74.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.3 | 71.1 |
| Massey | 2.0 (#126) | 5.3 (#94) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.07 (#164) | 2.78 (#23) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.07 (#167) | 3.00 (#46) |
| RPI | 0.522 (#129) | 0.589 (#49) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNCG | FUR |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 39.9% | 44.9% |
| 3PT% | 34.4% | 34.5% |
| REB / G | 36.3 | 34.0 |
| OREB / G | 11.9 | 8.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.22 | 1.41 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.4% | 53.7% |
| TOV% | 15.9% | 17.2% |
| ORB% | 32.3% | 27.5% |
| FT Rate | 21.4% | 22.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.6% | 46.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.3% | 17.4% |
| DRB% | 66.0% | 69.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.3% | 20.3% |
Game Analysis
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