Betting Lines
| Spread | FUR -5.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 147.5 Over |
| Money | FUR -270 UNCG +220 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | FUR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | FUR +6 | 156 | Won |
| Massey | FUR -7.4 (-1.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 151.1 (+4.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 69% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 76% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | FUR -6.4 (-0.4) | 145.9 (+10.1) | 70% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | FUR -5.6 (+0.4) | 146.5 (+9.5) | 71% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | FUR -5.9 (+0.1) | 144.6 (+11.4) | 73% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | FUR -5.9 (+0.1) | 145.9 (+10.1) | 72% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 8, 2026 | UNCG 67 – 64 FUR |
| Jan 23, 2026 | FUR 89 – 66 UNCG |
| Feb 15, 2025 | UNCG 58 – 50 FUR |
| Jan 4, 2025 | UNCG 84 – 67 FUR |
| Feb 4, 2024 | UNCG 89 – 87 FUR |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | FUR | UNCG |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-13 | 15-19 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 9-9 |
| Home | 11-5 | 8-6 |
| Away | 7-5 | 4-9 |
| Neutral | 4-3 | 3-4 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.9 | 76.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.5 | 81.9 |
| Massey | -2.0 (#195) | -9.3 (#305) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.28 (#201) | -1.10 (#262) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.42 (#202) | -1.58 (#283) |
| RPI | 0.515 (#142) | 0.464 (#255) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | FUR | UNCG |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.8% | 44.6% |
| 3PT% | 32.8% | 35.7% |
| REB / G | 37.2 | 34.6 |
| OREB / G | 10.3 | 10.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.25 | 1.17 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.4% | 51.8% |
| TOV% | 17.8% | 14.9% |
| ORB% | 30.9% | 28.2% |
| FT Rate | 21.7% | 29.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.8% | 56.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 13.5% | 13.5% |
| DRB% | 72.2% | 70.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.9% | 21.0% |
Game Analysis
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