Betting Lines
| Spread | FUR -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 139.5 Under |
| Money | FUR -155 UNCG +135 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | FUR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNCG +8 | 108 | Lost |
| Massey | FUR -2.2 (-10.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 135.7 (-27.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 74% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 72% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | FUR -1.3 (-9.3) | 136.2 (-28.2) | 61% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | FUR -1.7 (-9.7) | 135.5 (-27.5) | 59% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | FUR -1.9 (-9.9) | 137.4 (-29.4) | 63% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | FUR -1.6 (-9.6) | 138.9 (-30.9) | 60% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 8, 2026 | FUR 81 – 75 UNCG |
| Feb 8, 2026 | UNCG 67 – 64 FUR |
| Jan 23, 2026 | FUR 89 – 66 UNCG |
| Jan 4, 2025 | UNCG 84 – 67 FUR |
| Feb 4, 2024 | UNCG 89 – 87 FUR |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | FUR | UNCG |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 25-10 | 20-12 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 13-5 |
| Home | 13-3 | 11-3 |
| Away | 9-6 | 8-6 |
| Neutral | 3-1 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.2 | 70.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.1 | 67.3 |
| Massey | 0.4 (#155) | 1.4 (#140) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.71 (#115) | 0.21 (#160) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.48 (#142) | 0.18 (#159) |
| RPI | 0.549 (#88) | 0.527 (#127) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | FUR | UNCG |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.8% | 43.4% |
| 3PT% | 34.1% | 36.6% |
| REB / G | 35.3 | 36.0 |
| OREB / G | 10.8 | 11.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.44 | 1.16 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.5% | 51.4% |
| TOV% | 16.8% | 16.1% |
| ORB% | 31.1% | 32.3% |
| FT Rate | 22.6% | 21.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.3% | 47.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.5% | 16.8% |
| DRB% | 68.2% | 69.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.5% | 22.7% |
Game Analysis
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