Betting Lines
| Spread | MSM -5.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 130.5 Under |
| Money | MSM -225 MAN +220 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MSM win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MAN +5 | 119 | Lost |
| Massey | MSM -11.1 (-16.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 135.3 (-16.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 83% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 91% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MSM -8.3 (-13.3) | 133.3 (-14.3) | 77% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MSM -7.5 (-12.5) | 131.5 (-12.5) | 71% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MSM -8.0 (-13.0) | 134.4 (-15.4) | 79% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | MSM -8.5 (-13.5) | 134.8 (-15.8) | 72% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 1, 2026 | MSM 72 – 65 MAN |
| Jan 25, 2025 | MAN 74 – 64 MSM |
| Jan 11, 2025 | MSM 75 – 66 MAN |
| Feb 9, 2024 | MSM 82 – 78 MAN |
| Dec 2, 2023 | MAN 75 – 74 MSM |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MSM | MAN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-20 | 12-18 |
| Conference | 8-12 | 10-10 |
| Home | 5-9 | 5-9 |
| Away | 7-10 | 6-7 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 63.8 | 66.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.9 | 71.5 |
| Massey | -4.0 (#242) | -11.1 (#341) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.19 (#289) | -2.11 (#339) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.40 (#279) | -2.94 (#346) |
| RPI | 0.432 (#296) | 0.398 (#334) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MSM | MAN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.9% | 43.5% |
| 3PT% | 35.3% | 34.2% |
| REB / G | 33.7 | 29.9 |
| OREB / G | 10.3 | 8.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.93 | 0.84 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.0% | 50.0% |
| TOV% | 21.5% | 21.2% |
| ORB% | 30.2% | 25.7% |
| FT Rate | 19.3% | 21.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.5% | 52.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.5% | 21.4% |
| DRB% | 68.2% | 63.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.4% | 22.9% |
Game Analysis
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