Betting Lines
| Spread | MSM -6.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 147.5 Under |
| Money | MSM -270 MAN +220 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MSM win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MSM +7 | 137 | Won |
| Massey | MSM -6.3 (+0.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 154.6 (-17.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 71% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 77% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MSM -3.7 (+3.3) | 144.8 (-7.8) | 66% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MSM -4.0 (+3.0) | 145.0 (-8.0) | 66% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MSM -4.4 (+2.6) | 144.2 (-7.2) | 71% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MSM -4.7 (+2.3) | 144.3 (-7.3) | 69% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 25, 2025 | MAN 74 – 64 MSM |
| Jan 11, 2025 | MSM 75 – 66 MAN |
| Feb 9, 2024 | MSM 82 – 78 MAN |
| Dec 2, 2023 | MAN 75 – 74 MSM |
| Mar 4, 2023 | MSM 74 – 69 MAN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MSM | MAN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-17 | 12-20 |
| Conference | 11-9 | 8-12 |
| Home | 8-5 | 7-7 |
| Away | 7-11 | 3-12 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L4 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.9 | 72.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.0 | 79.6 |
| Massey | -9.7 (#305) | -12.9 (#340) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.24 (#277) | -1.62 (#305) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.66 (#277) | -2.29 (#315) |
| RPI | 0.446 (#271) | 0.441 (#283) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MSM | MAN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.1% | 42.1% |
| 3PT% | 32.5% | 33.0% |
| REB / G | 36.1 | 32.0 |
| OREB / G | 10.0 | 10.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.80 | 1.14 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.3% | 48.1% |
| TOV% | 23.1% | 15.5% |
| ORB% | 30.1% | 28.0% |
| FT Rate | 23.7% | 27.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.4% | 55.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.2% | 16.5% |
| DRB% | 70.2% | 61.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 28.3% | 18.0% |
Game Analysis
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