Betting Lines
| Spread | MSM -8.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 140.5 Over |
| Money | MSM -450 MAN +400 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MSM win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MSM +4 | 160 | Won |
| Massey | MSM -10.9 (-6.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 144.3 (+15.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 71% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MSM -9.1 (-5.1) | 143.7 (+16.3) | 81% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MSM -8.0 (-4.0) | 141.4 (+18.6) | 78% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MSM -8.5 (-4.5) | 142.4 (+17.6) | 81% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MSM -8.3 (-4.3) | 143.0 (+17.0) | 80% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 1, 2026 | MSM 72 – 65 MAN |
| Jan 25, 2025 | MAN 74 – 64 MSM |
| Jan 11, 2025 | MSM 75 – 66 MAN |
| Dec 2, 2023 | MAN 75 – 74 MSM |
| Mar 4, 2023 | MSM 74 – 69 MAN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MSM | MAN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-19 | 7-23 |
| Conference | 9-11 | 4-16 |
| Home | 8-5 | 3-10 |
| Away | 5-13 | 4-12 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L2 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.7 | 65.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.8 | 76.1 |
| Massey | -3.4 (#226) | -11.0 (#328) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.49 (#307) | -1.78 (#324) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.54 (#291) | -2.69 (#337) |
| RPI | 0.431 (#301) | 0.443 (#282) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MSM | MAN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.3% | 41.2% |
| 3PT% | 32.9% | 30.9% |
| REB / G | 34.5 | 33.9 |
| OREB / G | 10.2 | 9.6 |
| AST / TO | 0.91 | 0.93 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.9% | 47.4% |
| TOV% | 20.8% | 20.5% |
| ORB% | 31.2% | 25.7% |
| FT Rate | 19.0% | 14.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.6% | 52.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.2% | 16.5% |
| DRB% | 71.5% | 70.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.8% | 20.5% |
Game Analysis
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