Betting Lines
| Spread | MAN -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 150.5 Under |
| Money | MAN -125 MSM +105 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MAN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MSM +9 | 141 | Lost |
| Massey | MAN -2.0 (-11.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 158.8 (-17.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 50% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 42% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MAN -0.8 (-9.8) | 150.3 (-9.3) | 46% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MAN -0.7 (-9.7) | 150.4 (-9.4) | 43% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MAN -0.2 (-9.2) | 150.1 (-9.1) | 52% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | MAN -0.3 (-9.3) | 151.7 (-10.7) | 44% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 1, 2026 | MSM 72 – 65 MAN |
| Jan 25, 2025 | MAN 74 – 64 MSM |
| Feb 9, 2024 | MSM 82 – 78 MAN |
| Dec 2, 2023 | MAN 75 – 74 MSM |
| Mar 4, 2023 | MSM 74 – 69 MAN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MAN | MSM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-14 | 23-13 |
| Conference | 12-8 | 12-8 |
| Home | 9-5 | 10-4 |
| Away | 8-7 | 9-8 |
| Neutral | 0-2 | 4-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.9 | 69.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.2 | 70.7 |
| Massey | -5.5 (#262) | -3.5 (#224) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.45 (#210) | 0.27 (#147) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.10 (#248) | 0.06 (#164) |
| RPI | 0.466 (#232) | 0.515 (#145) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MAN | MSM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.1% | 42.3% |
| 3PT% | 34.3% | 32.6% |
| REB / G | 36.2 | 35.9 |
| OREB / G | 11.2 | 10.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.24 | 0.96 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.1% | 48.5% |
| TOV% | 16.2% | 20.7% |
| ORB% | 30.1% | 29.6% |
| FT Rate | 24.5% | 26.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.3% | 49.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.6% | 18.6% |
| DRB% | 67.0% | 69.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.2% | 21.9% |
Game Analysis
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