Betting Lines
| Spread | MSM -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 146.5 Under |
| Money | MSM -185 MAN +155 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MSM win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MAN +10 | 138 | Lost |
| Massey | MSM -3.8 (-13.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 155.2 (-17.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 79% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 83% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MSM -3.0 (-13.0) | 148.2 (-10.2) | 65% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MSM -3.8 (-13.8) | 147.3 (-9.3) | 69% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MSM -2.6 (-12.6) | 146.4 (-8.4) | 62% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | MSM -2.9 (-12.9) | 147.1 (-9.1) | 61% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 1, 2026 | MSM 72 – 65 MAN |
| Jan 11, 2025 | MSM 75 – 66 MAN |
| Feb 9, 2024 | MSM 82 – 78 MAN |
| Dec 2, 2023 | MAN 75 – 74 MSM |
| Mar 4, 2023 | MSM 74 – 69 MAN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MSM | MAN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-13 | 17-14 |
| Conference | 12-8 | 12-8 |
| Home | 10-4 | 9-5 |
| Away | 9-8 | 8-7 |
| Neutral | 4-1 | 0-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.3 | 75.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.7 | 75.2 |
| Massey | -6.8 (#272) | -7.3 (#279) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.25 (#202) | -0.94 (#250) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.76 (#226) | -1.67 (#288) |
| RPI | 0.501 (#182) | 0.454 (#250) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MSM | MAN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.3% | 43.4% |
| 3PT% | 32.5% | 34.2% |
| REB / G | 36.1 | 36.1 |
| OREB / G | 10.4 | 11.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.01 | 1.22 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.9% | 50.5% |
| TOV% | 21.1% | 17.3% |
| ORB% | 29.7% | 31.7% |
| FT Rate | 22.7% | 23.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.5% | 51.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.5% | 14.7% |
| DRB% | 70.1% | 66.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.4% | 20.8% |
Game Analysis
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